Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Let the real season begin!

Well hockey fans, I hope you've stocked up on your potato chips, pop, air horns and had your favorite team's jersey laundered because the real hockey season is about to get underway (unless, of course, you're a fan of the sad-sack Canuck's or Leaf's, in which case, emjoy the golf!)

Before I dive into the playoff predictions here's some a recap on how I fared with my regular season predictions that I updated back in January.

Here's how I predicted the final standings would look like in both the Western and Eastern Conferences:
In the West- Predictions Actual Final Standings
1. Detroit 1. Detroit
2. Calgary 2. Dallas
3. Dallas 3. Calgary
4. Vancouver 4. Nashville
5. Nashville 5. San Jose
6. Colorado 6. Anaheim
7. San Jose 7. Colorado
8. Edmonton 8. Edmonton

For someone who by no means is paid for these types of prognostications I'd say I was pretty darned good in my predictions. Flip a couple teams around and swap out Vancouver for Anaheim and I've pretty much got it nailed. Anaheim impressed me and I don't think anyone in the west wants to play San Jose right now with their dynamic duo of Thornton and Cheechoo.

In the East: Prediction Actual
1. Ottawa 1. Ottawa
2. Carolina 2. Carolina
3. Philadelphia 3. New Jersey
4. Buffalo 4. Buffalo
5. New York Rangers 5. Philadelphia
6. Toronto 6. New York Rangers
7. Atlanta 7. Montreal
8. New Jersey 8. Tampa Bay

Not quite as accurate with the East as I was with the West but still pretty respectable I think. New Jersey has been unreal hot for the last two weeks of the season and will be a tough team to beat (from the looks of things right now anyways), especially since they are the only team in the East who has a goalie with any proven playoff experience. There are some good goalies for sure, but none that come even close to having the track record of Marty Brodeur.

So, predictions for the playoffs. I think the most exciting thing about this year is that it is WIDE open. Detroit, Ottawa and Carolina dominated in the regular season but all have their vulnerabilities.

In the west:
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Detroit over Edmonton in 5 Detroit over San Jose in 6 Calgary over Detroit in 7
Dallas over Colorado in 5 Calgary over Dallas in 7
Calgary over Anaheim in 5
San Jose over Nashville in 6

In the east:
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Ottawa over Tampa in 4 Ottawa over Montreal in 7 Ottawa over Buffalo in 6
Montreal over Carolina in 6 Buffalo over New Jersey in 7
New Jersey over the Rangers in 7
Buffalo over Philadelphia in 5

Stanley Cup final
The all-Canadian final will be won by the Calgary Flames in 6 games.

The X-Factors for the playoffs?
Which players will play huge roles in the success of their teams in the off-season. I've always believed that an X-factor player can't be someone who is already a star on their team but are either a star-in-waiting or a former big namer who's had an otherwise tough season leading into the playoffs.

My top 5 X-factors for the 2006 playoffs are:
1. Mike Fisher- Ottawa Senators (one of the best, if not THE best, two-way players in the game)
2. Dwayne Roloson- if Rollie the Goalie can come up big then I'm definitely fearful of what the Oil can do in the playoffs.
3. Bill Guerin- 13 goals in the regular season- OUCH!- Dallas needs this guy to score big goals if they're going to go far.
4. Chris Drury- this guy was a playoff dynamo in his early days with Colorado. He'll be key to leading Buffalo to an Eastern Conference final matchup with the sens.
5.Brian Gionta- he scored 47 goals but it had to be one of the most invisible 47 goal campaign's I've ever seen. I still don't see this guy as being a household name so he definitely has X-factor possibilities.

I hope the post-season continues to provide fast-paced, high energy games like so many of the regular season contests. Let's hope the refs continue to call obstruction and stick infractions with the same regularity that they did during the regular season.

The NHL has had a very successful return with the revamped on-ice product and they need to ensure that that continues throughout the playoffs if they want fans to really believe that the league has changed for the better.

On to Lord Stanley!